The Kansas City Chiefs will finish their preseason schedule on Friday evening. Andy Reid and company will welcome the Minnesota Vikings to Arrowhead Stadium, and the Chiefs will look to finish up an unbeaten exhibition slate. In contrast, Minnesota is 0-2 to this point in the preseason and is looking for answers on offense. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is expected to suit up, at least to some degree, while standouts like wide receiver Justin Jefferson are projected to sit for the Vikings.
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Kickoff is at 8 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Chiefs as 4.5-point home favorites, while the Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 38.5 in the latest Chiefs vs. Vikings odds. Before you make any Vikings vs. Chiefs picks and NFL predictions, make sure you see what SportsLine NFL expert Larry Hartstein has to say.
SportsLine's senior analyst and Early Edge podcast regular enters the 2021 season 351-291 all-time on NFL sides (plus $2,212), including a 326-280 against the spread mark. In addition, Hartstein has an amazing 16-4 record on his last 20 picks involving Kansas City, returning more than $1,100. Anyone who has followed him is way up.
Now, Hartstein has set his sights on Vikings vs. Chiefs. You can head to SportsLine to see his picks. Here are several NFL betting lines and trends for Vikings vs. Chiefs:
Chiefs vs. Vikings spread: Chiefs -4.5
Chiefs vs. Vikings over-under: 38.5 points
Chiefs vs. Vikings money line: Chiefs -220, Vikings +180
MIN: Vikings finished 6-10 against the spread last season
KC: Chiefs were 8-11 against the spread in 2020
Why the Vikings can cover
Minnesota's offense has been a struggle to this point, but they showed signs of life defensively a week ago. The Vikings held the Colts to fewer than 300 yards of total offense and generated two turnovers. Mike Zimmer deployed Kirk Cousins and the starting offensive line for three series against Indianapolis and, while it wasn't ideal, Cousins was serviceable and can be expected to play well if he takes the field for more time.
Kansas City is missing key pieces like wide receiver Tyreek Hill and running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Chiefs also have far less to play for on paper, with the Vikings trying to make sure they are ready for the season after a dismal 2020.
Why the Chiefs can cover
Kansas City is the better offensive team, no matter how many starters are set to play on both sides. Patrick Mahomes played 32 snaps and threw 18 passes last week and is the best player on the field whenever he suits up. Head coach Andy Reid indicates that the Chiefs are likely to deploy both Mahomes and their starting offensive line for some level of play in the finale.
In addition, veteran backup quarterback Chad Henne is completing more than 70 percent of his passes, with two touchdown tosses, in the preseason. Youngster Shane Buechele has also been effective, completing 77 percent of his throws across two games. Kansas City has depth on the outside, and the Chiefs are a top-five team in preseason offense, compiling 358 total yards per game in the early going.
How to make Vikings vs. Chiefs picks
Hartstein has analyzed this matchup and while we can tell you he's leaning under the total, he has discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He's only sharing what it is, and who to back, at SportsLine.